Two founders, a demo wrapping a foundation model, no moat, no revenue, raising seed at a price that used to be a Series B. Everyone's afraid to miss the next one so nobody prices discipline anymore. Either I'm early-stage-brained and wrong, or the music stops and it's ugly. Tell me which.
You're not wrong that it's frothy. You might be wrong that it matters at seed — at this stage you're underwriting the team and the optionality, not the price. Sometimes overpaying for the right line is correct.
"Overpaying for the right line is correct" is either the wisest or the most cope thing a partner has ever said to me and I genuinely can't tell which.
The wrapper-on-a-foundation-model startups are the 2021 "we're the Uber of X" energy. The water finds its level eventually.
From the LP-adjacent seat: the vintage that deploys into this froth at these marks is going to have a rough DPI conversation in 2030.
Sourcing 40 deals a week to say no 39 times. Carry that may never vest, conviction that always does.
＋ New threadMarkets, deals, and the group chat — for people who read the footnotes.